Vechain price has already climbed 22%, and momentum shows no signs of waning. The breakout above the 3.618 Fibonacci extension of the 2018-2020 bear market at $0.097 is a relief for the bullish speculators after failed attempts in the last three weeks.
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Since November 2020, VET has religiously held the 10-week simple moving average (SMA) on a closing basis, establishing a fortified digital token trend. Unlike other pullbacks, the March correction of 25% stayed well above the key moving average and any important retracement levels of the 2020-2021 bull market.
With a resumption of the trend, traders need to focus on the 4.618 extension level of the 2018-2020 bear market at $0.124 as the first line of resistance. A more credible target is the 2.618 extension level of the March decline at $0.141, yielding a 26% gain from the current price.
More aggressive traders need to focus on the 3.618 extension of the March correction at $0.166. It is a 50% gain from the current price, but considering the magnitude of the breakout and the volume commitment, it is a reasonable projection.
VET/USD weekly chart
Charts on multiple timeframes point to $0.097 as the critical support for the rally, and any weekly close below the level will immediately shift the outlook to neutral. The subsequent support is the March low at $0.075, followed by a combination of the 10-week SMA and the 0.382 retracement level of the 2020-2021 advance around $0.070.
If the critical moving average does not hold on a weekly close, it is a signal that the trend has changed and a far deeper correction is underway. The 0.50 retracement level sits at $0.057, and the 0.618 retracement level comes in at $0.044.